The Odds Man: ‘D’ is key in Week 3

Jeff "The Odds Man" Helberg
Jeff “The Odds Man” Helberg (Caricature by C. Luttig)

UPDATED: Sept. 18, at 2:27 p.m.

By Jeff Helberg
The Odds Man

Week 2 of the NFL regular season scorched a lot of teams and bettors, as the Saints, Bucs, Seahawks, 49ers, Titans, and Colts all went down to the shock of millions of fans.

Keep in mind, the best defensive teams often win a lot of games and make the playoffs. Top defensive teams going into Week 3 are Washington, Detroit, New York Jets, New England and Carolina. Be careful if you pick them as losers.

Against the spread, away dogs are your best bet after two weeks, cashing in 62.5 percent of the time, at 15-9-1. As one might guess, home favorites win the most straight-up (60 percent) games. But, betting on home favorites can mean death when it comes to covering the spread. So far, home favorites have only covered a dismal 37.5 percent of the time. Home dogs are even a safer bet than home favorites, with a 57.1 winning percentage.

Vegas is overestimating offenses, as 56.2 percent of the 32 games have gone under the total. I usually avoid betting totals. They go south too easily.

For now, Carolina -3 (a home favorite) looks pretty good. I also like San Diego (+1), Baltimore (-2), Cincinnati (-7), Seattle (-5), Houston (-1) and Detroit (-1).

As always, good luck.

Week 3 Predictions  

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Tennessee at Cincinnati

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

San Diego at Buffalo

Washington at Philadelphia

Oakland at New England

Houston at New York Giants

Minnesota at New Orleans

Green Bay at Detroit

Baltimore at Cleveland

Dallas at St. Louis

San Francisco at Arizona

Denver at Seattle

Kansas City at Miami

Pittsburgh at Carolina

Chicago at New York Jets

Survivor: New England

The Odds Man is 20-12 after Week 2.



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