The Odds Man: Home teams to dominate Week 5

The Odd(s) Man
The Odd(s) Man

By Jeff Helberg
The Odds Man

Week 4 results

Week 4 Straight Up: 7-6 (54 percent); Season 38-23 (62 percent)

Week 4 Against the Spread (ATS): 3-3 (50 percent); Season 7-4-1 (64 percent)

Week 4 Survivor: 1-0; Season 4-0 (100 percent)

Every week, a handful of NFL teams melt down and self-destruct. In Week 3, these were the Redskins, Bears, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, and Patriots. The six bungling teams—three at home and three away—were destroyed by a whopping average of 19 points (three scores). Disgusting.

Now for Week 5.

Byes: Miami and Oakland

For straight-up office pools, I have home teams winning 12 of this week’s 15 games (80 percent), which is a far higher ratio than normal. You could check all “home” and do pretty well.

For us Vegas types, the best spread-covering teams are the Bengals, Chargers, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Colts, and Chiefs.

The worst spread-covering teams so far are the Jaguars, Broncos, Jets, Titans, Bucs, Saints, Steelers, and Patriots.

Almost all lines are already open. Good Week 5 bets might be: Tennessee -1, San Diego -7, and Cincinnati -1.5. Others could be Dallas -6, Detroit -7.5, Indianapolis -3.5, Carolina -3, Philadelphia -7.5, and New York Giants -4.

Survivor: Detroit

As always, good luck.

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Cleveland @ Tennessee

Chicago @ Carolina

Houston @ Dallas

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Buffalo @ Detroit

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Atlanta @ New York Giants

St. Louis @ Philadelphia

Arizona @ Denver

New York Jets @ San Diego

Kansas City @ San Francisco

Cincinnati @ New England

Seattle @ Washington

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