By Jeff Helberg
The Odds Man
The Odds Man through Week 9
Week 9 Straight up: 8-5; Season: 89-45 (66 percent)
Week 9 ATS: 5-4; Season: 29-25-2 (54 percent)
Week 9 Survivor: 1-0; Season 8-1 (89 percent)
After nine weeks, a quarter of the league–eight teams–have either six or seven wins, which means the lower 24 teams must work harder to break into this elite group: the Patriots and Cardinals have seven wins each, and the Broncos, Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, Colts, and Steelers each have six. The Patriots and Colts are off this week.
Week 10 Straight Up Predictions
Six byes this week: NE, SD, Hou, IN, Was, MN
(Winners in Caps)
Cleveland @ CINCINNATI
Miami @ DETROIT
KANSAS CITY @ Buffalo
PITTSBURGH @ New York Jets
Tennessee @ BALTIMORE
San Francisco @ NEW ORLEANS
DALLAS @ Jacksonville
ATLANTA @ Tampa Bay
DENVER @ Oakland
New York Giants @ SEATTLE
St. Louis @ ARIZONA
Chicago @ GREEN BAY
Carolina @ PHILADELPHIA
Week 10 Against the Spread Predictions
Teams coming off a bye are 60 percent covering the spread in their first game back. This week, those teams are Det, GB, and Atl, of which I endorse two to cover their spread.
Det -3 over Mia: Calvin Johnson is back.
Atl -1 over TB: Mike Smith’s Falcons are 5-1 after bye weeks. And the Bucs are bad.
Car +6 vs Phi: Eagles have a lot of injuries, Panthers don’t.
NO -5 over SF: 49ers’ O-line is horrible.
Dal -7.5 over Jac: Same as last week, only if Romo plays.
NYJ +6 vs Pit: This probably seems like a contrarian play, but a few stats put the Jets in a good light for covering. One is that road favorites, after playing three straight home games—the Steelers–fail to cover 62.3 percent of the time.
KC -2 over Buf: Chiefs are eight rankings better on offense than the Bills, and four rankings better on defense, which should translate to a field goal win.
NYG +10.5 vs Sea: Seahawks are bad at covering, a third of their starters are hurt, and it is a double digit spread.
Just for fun:
KC/Buf Over 41.5
Dal/Jac Under 45
Atl/TB Under 46
Den/Oak Under 49
NYG/Sea Over 44.5
Chi/GB Under 53.5
As always, good luck!