The Odds Man: Week 11 NFL picks: Underdogs will bite back
By Jeff Helberg
The Odds Man
The Odds Man through Week 10
Week 10 straight up: 10-3; Season: 99-48 (67 percent)
Week 10 ATS: 5-3; Season: 34-28-2 (55 percent)
Week 10 survivor: 1-0; Season 9-1 (90 percent)
Odd Facts: Only six teams have seven or eight wins. One division leader only has four wins. And a cellar dweller has six wins — the crazy world of the NFL.
Week 11 straight up predictions
(Note: Four byes this week: New York Jets, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Dallas.)
Straight-up winners are in bold and caps, as follow:
Buffalo @ MIAMI
MINNESOTA @ Chicago
Houston @ CLEVELAND
ATLANTA @ Carolina
Cincinnati @ NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay @ WASHINGTON
DENVER @ St. Louis
San Francisco @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Seattle @ KANSAS CITY
Oakland @ SAN DIEGO
Detroit @ ARIZONA
Philadelphia @ GREEN BAY
NEW ENGLAND @ Indianapolis
PITTSBURGH @ Tennessee
Week 11 against the spread predictions
Underdogs should cover their spreads well in Week 11, because last week the favorites covered at a clip of 9-3. After a week covering more than 70 percent, less than half of favorites cover (45 percent since 2006).
• Buffalo +4.5 vs. Miami: Both have a lot of injuries, and this could be a low-scoring affair.
• Arizona -1 over Detroit: Cardinals coach Bruce Arians is 12-3-1 ATS (against the spread) as a favorite.
• Oakland +10.5 vs. San Diego: Oakland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit road dog.
• New England +3 vs. Indianapolis: Colts quarterback Andrew Luck’s turnovers will hurt Indy in what could be a barn burner.
• Pittsburgh -6 over Tennessee: The Steelers want badly to bury last week’s embarrassment.
Just for fun:
• Buffalo/Miami under 41
• New England/Indianapolis over 57.5
Survivor: Green Bay
As always, good luck!
Posted Nov. 13, 2014