The Odds Man: Week 11 NFL picks: Underdogs will bite back

The Odd(s) Man
The Odd(s) Man

By Jeff Helberg
The Odds Man

The Odds Man through Week 10

Week 10 straight up: 10-3; Season: 99-48 (67 percent)

Week 10 ATS: 5-3; Season: 34-28-2 (55 percent)

Week 10 survivor: 1-0; Season 9-1 (90 percent)

Odd Facts: Only six teams have seven or eight wins. One division leader only has four wins. And a cellar dweller has six wins — the crazy world of the NFL.

Week 11 straight up predictions

(Note: Four byes this week: New York Jets, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Dallas.)

Straight-up winners are in bold and caps, as follow:

Buffalo @ MIAMI

MINNESOTA @ Chicago

Houston @ CLEVELAND

ATLANTA @ Carolina

Cincinnati @ NEW ORLEANS

Tampa Bay @ WASHINGTON

DENVER @ St. Louis

San Francisco @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Seattle @ KANSAS CITY

Oakland @ SAN DIEGO

Detroit @ ARIZONA

Philadelphia @ GREEN BAY

NEW ENGLAND @ Indianapolis

PITTSBURGH @ Tennessee

Week 11 against the spread predictions

Underdogs should cover their spreads well in Week 11, because last week the favorites covered at a clip of 9-3. After a week covering more than 70 percent, less than half of favorites cover (45 percent since 2006).

Buffalo +4.5 vs. Miami: Both have a lot of injuries, and this could be a low-scoring affair.

Arizona -1 over Detroit: Cardinals coach Bruce Arians is 12-3-1 ATS (against the spread) as a favorite.

Oakland +10.5 vs. San Diego: Oakland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit road dog.

New England +3 vs. Indianapolis: Colts quarterback Andrew Luck’s turnovers will hurt Indy in what could be a barn burner.

Pittsburgh -6 over Tennessee: The Steelers want badly to bury last week’s embarrassment.

Just for fun:

Buffalo/Miami under 41

New England/Indianapolis over 57.5

Survivor: Green Bay

As always, good luck!

Posted Nov. 13, 2014

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